The Metropolitan Area forecast is based on the August 2003 Global Insight U.S. forecast and the related forecast of the Wisconsin economy presented in this report. The forecast is produced by a model that distributes a Wisconsin statewide economic forecast to the underlying metropolitan areas, using time trends in the share of industry employment occurring in each metropolitan area during the 1992-2000 expansion, and the 2000-2002 "recession".

According to this analysis, along with Racine and Janesville, Milwaukee had worse than average employment growth and loss largely due to an economic environment with a higher proportion of cyclical industries and higher concentrations of manufacturing employment, particularly in durable goods. Real wages increased over the time period, and they appear to be higher in the larger metropolitan areas, notably Milwaukee-Waukesha, Madison and Green Bay. The authors forecast employment growth in 2004 in most metropolitan areas with the exception of Milwaukee-Waukesha, which also has the lowest income growth forecast (3%).

Other conclusions reached include: In 2001 and 2002, employment decline in Milwaukee-Waukesha exceeded the statewide average by 0.6%. Employment gains are not expected until 2004 when private non-manufacturing employment is expected to resume sufficient growth to offset further losses in manufacturing and government employment. Despite the difficulty in job growth, Milwaukee-Waukesha area wage rates have held up well.